Research and Comment on Deep Recessions, the Zero Lower Bound and Macroeconomic Policy

  • Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja), Nov. 24, 2016, with minor corrections Aug. 1, 2017. Also available as Discussion Paper 11428, 03 August 2016, Centre for Economic Policy Research. London, UK.
  • Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity? (with Jess Benhabib and Seppo Honkapohja), 2014, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2014, Vol. 45, 220-238.
  • The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Recent US Policy, Chapter 3 in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
  • Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects, edited by David Cobham, Řyvind Eitrheim, Stefan Gerlach and Jan F Qvigstad, Cambridge University Press, 2010, chapter 11, 232-260.
  • Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (with Eran Guse and Seppo Honkapohja),  European Economic Review, Vol. 52, 2008, 1438 – 1463. Typo in equation (23): sigma1 should be 1/sigma1.
  • Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap, Monetary and Economic Studies, December 2008, 59 – 86.
  • Video & Economist's View link: The Dynamic Properties of New Keynesian Models, Sept. 1, 2010.
  • VideoVox interview "Pessimism and the ZLB" in connection with presentation at July 2017 Bank of England conference, Applications of Behavioural Economics and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomic Policy.
  • Blog post on Economist's View, Dec 30, 2015, 'The Neo-Fisherian View and the Macro Learning Approach' (with Bruce McGough).
  • Section 3.3.2 Liquidity Traps and Deflationary Spirals of "Learning and Macroeconomics" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 1, 2009.
  • Commentary article in Register Guard, August 2, 2009, on Fiscal policy in deep recessions
  • Earlier Register Guard guest column, Dec. 20, 2001, written during the 2001 recession: State badly needs a rainy day fund
  • Lectures and invited talks on expectations, learning and policy

    Research Working Papers
  • Equilibrium Stability in a Nonlinear Cobweb Model (with Bruce McGough), January 2020, forthcoming Economics Letters.
  • Are Long-horizon Expectations (De-) stabilizing? Theory and Experiments (with Cars Hommes, Bruce McGough and Isabelle Salle), April 2020
  • Learning When To Say No (with David Evans and Bruce McGough), February 2019
  • Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy, Nov. 24, 2016, with minor corrections Aug. 1, 2017. (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja). Also available as Discussion Paper 11428, 03 August 2016, Centre for Economic Policy Research. London, UK.
  • Learning to Optimize revised April 18, 2018 (with Bruce McGough)
  • Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots (with Bruce McGough)
  • Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention and Changes in Monetary Policy (with William Branch, John Carlson and Bruce McGough)

  •                                             Earlier Published Papers --electronic reprints available on request

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