• Teaching -- Current & Recent Course Syllabi:


    Research and Comment on Fiscal Policy in Deep Recessions

    The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Current US Policy, revised April 2, 2011.

    Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy (with Seppo Honkapohja) Abstract, in Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects, edited by David Cobham, Øyvind Eitrheim, Stefan Gerlach and Jan F Qvigstad, Cambridge University Press, 2010, chapter 11, 232-260.

    Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (with Eran Guse and Seppo Honkapohja) Abstract,  European Economic Review, Vol. 52, 2008, 1438 – 1463. Electronic reprint available by email on request.

    Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap, Monetary and Economic Studies, December 2008, 59 – 86.

    Commentary article in Register Guard, August 2, 2009, on Fiscal policy in deep recessions

    Earlier Register Guard guest column, Dec. 20, 2001, written during the 2001 recession: State badly needs a rainy day fund  Remark: This time around Oregon does have a rainy day fund, but it needed to be larger. We should get this right in the future. All states should have a substantial rainy day fund, built up in expansions, to be used in recessions. Drawing on rainy day funds could be made contingent on a recession having been declared by the NBER reference cycle committee or the level of the state's unemployment rate as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
     

    Lectures on Expectations, Learning and Policy

    Research Working Papers

  • Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection (with Seppo Honkapohja, Thomas J Sargent and Noah Williams)
  • Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models (with Roger Guesnerie and Bruce McGough)
  • Fiscal Policy and Learning (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja)
  • Unstable Inflation Targets (with William Branch)
  • Policy Change and Learning in the RBC model (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja)
  • Bubbles, Crashes and Risk (with William Branch)
  • Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance, (with Seppo Honkapohja), forthcoming in Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics, Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps (eds.), Princeton University Press, 2013.
  • Finite Horizon Learning (with William Branch and Bruce McGough) Abstract
  • Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold when Agents are not Rational? (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra) Abstract, forthcoming Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
  • Learning to Optimize (Preliminary, with Bruce McGough)
  • Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots (with Bruce McGough) Abstract
  • Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention and Changes in Monetary Policy (with William Branch, John Carlson and Bruce McGough) Abstract
     
  • Comments on “Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics and Asset Pricing,” by Andreas Fuster, Benjamin Hebert and David Laibson, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2011
  • Notes on Agents' Behavioral Rules under Adaptive Learning and Studies of Monetary Policy (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra).


                                                Recent Published Papers
     

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