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Re: RE: starship-design: Infrastructure in space

In a message dated 4/27/00 9:43:55 AM, zkulpa@zmit1.ippt.gov.pl writes:

>> From owner-starship-design@lists.uoregon.edu Thu Apr 27 02:01:45 2000
>> From: KellySt@aol.com
>> In a message dated 4/26/00 7:49:46 AM, zkulpa@zmit1.ippt.gov.pl writes:
>> >> >You bet? Think what would happen if astrophysicists find out that
>> >> >the Sun is going to blow in a hundred or so years...
>> >> >
>> >> >Generally, a civilization that is confined to one planet is doomed,
>> >
>> >> >sooner or later. That which settles all the planetary system is doomed
>> >> >too, though in a much larger time frame. But such one will be rather
>> >> >used to plan in longer time frames too...
>> >> 
>> >> We're around a middle aged star. Its got another 4-5 billion 
>> >> years in it. I can't see that being a major driver. 
>> >>
>> >The explosion of the Sun was only an off-the-shelf example -
>> >there are other threats within much smaller time frame.
>> Such as?
>Nearby supernova explosion. Nearby passage of some massive object
>(a star, a brown dwarf) making havoc with planetary orbits.

No supernovas possible with any star close enough to hurt us, even if our 
planetary orbits were trashed, settling in space colonies would be easier, 
quicker, more comfortable, safer.

>> >> Not to mention unless we develop star ships that could carry 
>> >> millions of people we couldn't set up viable self 
>> >> sufficent colonies on other stars.
>> >> 
>> >First, I think that with appropriate technology they may _start_ 
>> >from far smaller population. Second, millions, if need be, 
>> >can be carried in test tubes...
>> Embryos don't run factories or set up colonies. 
>> Nor can a small crew raise  millions of successors.
>An initial crew will set up initial colony using the technological
>resources brought with them, and then start to raise successors
>to replenish their intelectual/cultural/genetic supply.
>Not all the millions at the same time - so many they can raise,
>successively raising more with the help of growing numbers of 
>already raised.
>Millions of test tubes are needed for:
>- sufficient genetical diversity;
>- possibility of faster grow of population than
>  with the "traditional" means only (so to say ;-)

The limiting factor in traditional replacements--  ;)  -- is the efort to 
raise and train them.  Even raising 5-6 kids per couple would be a strain, 
limiting the growth rate to tripling per generatin.  Say 10 fold growth per 
century.  Since the origional equipment can be assumed to be worn out in 
40-50 years, you still short factory workers.

And again why?

>The initial resources carried with the ship(s) should be enough
>to last until the numbers of growing population will be sufficient 
>for sustaining the civilization development without further aid.
>A few further supply ships may ease the transition - they can be
>build & crewed by additional colonists that made their minds later...
>-- Zenon Kulpa