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Re: Recycling

re   T.L.G.vanderLinden@student.utwente.nl (Timothy van der Linden)
> To Kelly:
> >No doubt our current homes and lifestyle will
> >seem equally squalid and unacceptable to our desendants.  So they will
> >longer to live better.
> It depends on what the gain would be. How fast will technology grow in the
> futere, will the exponential growth of the last 2 centuries slow down?

Current indications are that it will accelerate.  Given that we are assuming
a large space infastructure to build the ship, that would give us all access
to VAST raw material resouces and wealth.

> >Probably not as long as we do now, and they'ld demand
> >better jobs and treatment; but they would still work.  I have great faith
> >human greed and desire for a better life for themselves, their families,
> >others they like.
> Again, it depends on the gain. These days, many people decide to live from
> social finances and not to work and earn more money.

Truem but the welfare is so generous (if you don't mind sucking up to a
burecrate dweeb) that the people on welfare (generally lower inteligence and
education) would be hard pressed to find a better paying job.

> >> By the way, do you think that human AI can be rivalled by "computers"
> >within
> >> say 300 years? (Just to get some idea of your ideas)
> >
> >Pretty much what I was pitch in DataNet War.  We can now build computers
> >complexity approching the human brain (computers with E 12 bytes of ram
> >been built, I don't think the human brains much more than that.)
> I remember that the human brain has E20 neurons. But it is not especially
> the memory but the the connection between them, all have to be parallel.

The latest issue of ANALOG science fact/science fiction has an artical on
current and future computer and nano-tech systems.  We alread have built
computers with more processing power, data flow, and memory capacity then the
human brain.  (As long as the total data flow rate is as great with a
non-paralell system, it will work.  Now if we could just tell it what to do!)
 In 20-30 years a 1 human equivelent system should cost what a good home
computer costs now.  Should help A.I. research quite a bit. ;)

> >> Yes, that is what I meant when I wrote that a lot of time is spend on
> >> if you would maintain what you have, the computers would become cheaper
> >> cheaper because only the maintenance and rebuild cost would have to be
> >> paid.
> >> These days a lot of money is paid for the development. Of course this
> >> doesn't take in account the time that can be spared after the new
> >> can be used.
> >> So if we go on developing like today's society, one day the amount of
> >> spare(d) time will be more than the time used for R&D :)
> >
> >Computers are becoming cheaper and cheaper by a factor of 100 each decade.
> Old computers are another factor 100 cheaper.

No they arn't, even used 10 year old computers arn't that much cheaper.  The
newer tech is cheaper to build, and faster.