[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

starship-design: Fwd: Space tourist projections for 2030

Bit of an artical opn space tourism.  Interesting artical if you want to 
check out the URL.


---- Begin included message ----

                     A figure of 5 million passengers/year in 2030 would
imply that the
                     cumulative number of passengers at that time would
be some 40 million
                     people - or perhaps 2% of the middle class
population of the time. Yet in
                     market research, not only do most people say that
they would like to
                     travel to space, but a large proportion,
particularly of younger people,
                     wish to do so several times. And in view of the
likely fall in costs as well
                     as the development of progressively more
entertaining facilities in orbit,
                     this seems probable. Thus a traffic level of 5
million passengers/year by
                     2030 will be very far from satisfying the known
demand, and so traffic
                     levels even several times higher than this must be
considered a

                     Such growth will also have interesting implications
for the hotel industry.
                     From market research, the great majority of
customers can be expected
                     to stay in orbit for 2-3 days or longer, from which
it is simple to calculate
                     that 5-10 million passengers/year will entail some
30,000 - 80,000 guests
                     staying simultaneously in orbital accommodation.
Assuming an average
                     occupancy rate of 80%, this will require capacity
for some 35,000 to
                     100,000 guests in orbit. It is worth noting that
the technology required for
                     initial orbital accommodation is much simpler than
that needed for
                     passenger launch vehicles or an orbiting research
station. However, by
                     2030 orbital hotels will have moved beyond the
first generation,
                     comprising clusters of standard pre-fabricated
modules, to include large
                     structures like resort hotels and entertainment
complexes assembled in

                     A further implication is that, assuming a
staff:guest ratio of between 1:3
                     and 1:2, the number of hotel staff working in orbit
30 years from now will
                     be between 10,000 and 50,000. Since staff will work
shifts (probably of 2
                     - 3 months), the total number of people engaged in
this work will be at
                     least twice this figure, or between 20,000 and
100,000. Staff who work in
                     space for the travel and tourism industry as hotel
staff and space tour
                     conductors (or "Specon" as they are coming to be
known in Japan) can
                     therefore be expected to outnumber government
astronauts by
                     hundreds-to-one by 2030. (These are therefore much
more realistic
                     career-goals for young people to aim towards than
trying to be selected
                     as one of the tiny number of government

                     Based on this simple analysis, we can project that
30 years from now
                     there will be 100 hotels or more in orbit - the
majority probably being in
                     high-inclination orbits for economical access from
high latitudes (21), and
                     to give guests views of much of the Earth. There
may be perhaps 20
                     hotels in equatorial orbit (the cheapest to reach)
for customers who are
                     more interested in zero gravity activities such as
sports than in the range
                     of views of Earth, 10 in polar orbit to give views
of the whole of Earth,
                     and a few in highly elliptical orbits to give
guests views of the distant

                     With 100 or more scheduled flights/day to these
hotels, and probably
                     many more private flights, traffic control will be
a long-established
                     system: an integrated Space and Air Traffic
Management System
                     (SATMS) is, after all, already under study by the
US Federal Aviation
                     Authority, FAA, (22). In addition, hotels will
probably operate in a small
                     number of defined orbits, due to the safety and
operational benefits that
                     they will gain, and for which a number of legal
innovations will be
                     required (23).  

                     Due to the commercial incentives that will exist in
such a scenario there
                     is likely to be at least one propellant "service
station" in each of the main
                     hotel orbits, and the supply of water from the
lunar surface and comets to
                     these stations (for conversion to oxygen, hydrogen
and other chemicals),
                     and to orbital hotels and entertainment-complexes
will probably be a
                     regular commercial activity (24).  

---- End included message ----