http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/space_activities_space_tourism_and_e
conomic_growth.shtml
A figure of 5 million passengers/year in 2030 would
imply that the
cumulative number of passengers at that time would
be some 40 million
people - or perhaps 2% of the middle class
population of the time. Yet in
market research, not only do most people say that
they would like to
travel to space, but a large proportion,
particularly of younger people,
wish to do so several times. And in view of the
likely fall in costs as well
as the development of progressively more
entertaining facilities in orbit,
this seems probable. Thus a traffic level of 5
million passengers/year by
2030 will be very far from satisfying the known
demand, and so traffic
levels even several times higher than this must be
considered a
possibility.
Such growth will also have interesting implications
for the hotel industry.
From market research, the great majority of
customers can be expected
to stay in orbit for 2-3 days or longer, from which
it is simple to calculate
that 5-10 million passengers/year will entail some
30,000 - 80,000 guests
staying simultaneously in orbital accommodation.
Assuming an average
occupancy rate of 80%, this will require capacity
for some 35,000 to
100,000 guests in orbit. It is worth noting that
the technology required for
initial orbital accommodation is much simpler than
that needed for
passenger launch vehicles or an orbiting research
station. However, by
2030 orbital hotels will have moved beyond the
first generation,
comprising clusters of standard pre-fabricated
modules, to include large
structures like resort hotels and entertainment
complexes assembled in
orbit.
A further implication is that, assuming a
staff:guest ratio of between 1:3
and 1:2, the number of hotel staff working in orbit
30 years from now will
be between 10,000 and 50,000. Since staff will work
shifts (probably of 2
- 3 months), the total number of people engaged in
this work will be at
least twice this figure, or between 20,000 and
100,000. Staff who work in
space for the travel and tourism industry as hotel
staff and space tour
conductors (or "Specon" as they are coming to be
known in Japan) can
therefore be expected to outnumber government
astronauts by
hundreds-to-one by 2030. (These are therefore much
more realistic
career-goals for young people to aim towards than
trying to be selected
as one of the tiny number of government
astronauts.)
Based on this simple analysis, we can project that
30 years from now
there will be 100 hotels or more in orbit - the
majority probably being in
high-inclination orbits for economical access from
high latitudes (21), and
to give guests views of much of the Earth. There
may be perhaps 20
hotels in equatorial orbit (the cheapest to reach)
for customers who are
more interested in zero gravity activities such as
sports than in the range
of views of Earth, 10 in polar orbit to give views
of the whole of Earth,
and a few in highly elliptical orbits to give
guests views of the distant
Earth.
With 100 or more scheduled flights/day to these
hotels, and probably
many more private flights, traffic control will be
a long-established
system: an integrated Space and Air Traffic
Management System
(SATMS) is, after all, already under study by the
US Federal Aviation
Authority, FAA, (22). In addition, hotels will
probably operate in a small
number of defined orbits, due to the safety and
operational benefits that
they will gain, and for which a number of legal
innovations will be
required (23).
Due to the commercial incentives that will exist in
such a scenario there
is likely to be at least one propellant "service
station" in each of the main
hotel orbits, and the supply of water from the
lunar surface and comets to
these stations (for conversion to oxygen, hydrogen
and other chemicals),
and to orbital hotels and entertainment-complexes
will probably be a
regular commercial activity (24).