RE: RE: RE: starship-design: Space Money

[David Levine <david@actionworld.com>]

Heh, you're right - I didn't even realize my first statement "10 in
perhaps 10 years" was pretty much the same speed as my predictions for
the distant future when I saw Moore's Law kicking in.  Oops.

The second statement, though, of "100 in 50 years" is definately slower
than that, though.  If it was the same rate, it would have been "10 in
perhaps 10 years.  100 in 20 years."

An order of magnitude every ten years for fifty years is, of course,
10^5, or 100,000 times cheaper than today.  That would be pretty cheap
access to space - it would cost $0.10 - $0.20 per pound to launch into
orbit.  Cheaper than an airline flight, in fact.  Perhaps in a few
centuries...

On another note, the real Moore's Law says - what?  Computing power per
unit cost doubles every two years or something like that?  Of course
that means computing power per unit cost increases by 32 times every
decade, right?  At least our Space Moore's Law is a little more
conservative, hoping that (whenever it kicks in - IF it ever does) space
travel would become 10 times cheaper every decade.

I've read one thing about Vinge's Singularity that fascinates me:
assuming no limit anytime in the near future on Moore's Law, imagine a
computer is developed that is as capable and as advanced as a human
brain... Then what comes two years after that?  How about two years
after THAT?
------------------------------------------------------
David Levine                     david@actionworld.com
Director of Development    http://www.actionworld.com/
ActionWorld, Inc.                       (212) 387-8200
Professional Driver.  Closed Track.  Do not attempt.

> ----------
> From: 	L. Parker[SMTP:lparker@cacaphony.net]
> If we are going to make our timetable of 50 years then we had better
> hope 
> that Moore's Law kicks in TODAY. We need an order of magnitude
> reduction 
> every ten years for the next fifty years in order to make it...
>