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Re: Recycling/AI and super human computers

>???!!  TV's have changed dramatically in the last thirty years.  Not the
>picture format, which is fixed by law, but the image clarity and relyability
>is far better.  That of course ignores the fact that current TV's are about
>to be phased out for digital HDTV's (at least in the states).

>> Yes, but untill HDTV (which is more or less the logical 
>> step to digital multi media and communication) these 
>> improvements are not so big that every living soul 
>> (overstatement) wants to buy a new television. 

What I was going for was that the TV's them selves have changed dramatically
without HDTV.  These changes in image quality and relyability were enough
that everyone went out to get a new set.

I wounder if the internet will wind up becoming part international cable

>Virtually all major feilds from industrial architecture, computers,
>industrial manufacture, chemistry, aviation, farming, have all seen dramatic
>improvements.  Theses improvements don't always do something obvious, but
>they are there.

>> But are these advancements accelerations or just steady growth?

Acceleration.  Most industries talk about the double time of the knowledge
base of their field.  Thats an exponential growth curve.

>> Rethinking it, I come to the conclusion that as soon as AI 
>> has an IQ of 80 it will only take a few years to reach 180.

Less than that.  Computer systems have maintained a 100 fold improvement in
performance per decade for over half a century.  Hard to tell how A.I. would
fit into that.  We might make a breakthrough (like in my book) and have
everything fall into place in months, or we might stumble along for decades.

>As for us and super intelegent AI's.  Eiather we'll find something to do
>together (or co-evolve), or they will move on and ignore us. (We can hardly
>expect them to take care of us forever.)

>> Maybe we should make them just smart enough to do 
>> the dirty jobs. And use only a few with IQ 1000 to think. 

;)  You can't hide forever.  Best to come out a deal with things as theyt
happen, not try to lock yourself into a safe past.

>The biggest computer I know of personally is a 4-5 tera byte (E12 byte
>system) being constructed in my old neighborhood in Reston Virgina for the
>phone companies cable TV experement.  The Cray corporation is building a 9
>teraflop system for the US government DARPA research agency (completion
>scheduled for 1998), and their competitor (thinking machines) is offering a
>teraflop system comercially for $100 million. 

>> Yes, I found some info about another CRAY having max 1.2 TFLOPS.

Ok, so we have the electronic brains.  Now for the minds!

>So we already are building systems bigger and more powerfull than the human
>brain, we just don't really know how to make them think.  True intelegence
>may require custom circutry.  But that circutry could be built in a way
>similar to the current circuts.  If of course it does need couston circuts,
>which is hotly debated.

> Custom circuis are is less efficient to do highly parallel computing than
> neural-circuits. ---

I was refering to neural net circuts.  We alread know how to make them to the
same consentration as standard circuts, but so far they arn't as usfull.