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Re: Recycling/AI and super human computers
>???!! TV's have changed dramatically in the last thirty years. Not the
>picture format, which is fixed by law, but the image clarity and relyability
>is far better. That of course ignores the fact that current TV's are about
>to be phased out for digital HDTV's (at least in the states).
>> Yes, but untill HDTV (which is more or less the logical
>> step to digital multi media and communication) these
>> improvements are not so big that every living soul
>> (overstatement) wants to buy a new television.
What I was going for was that the TV's them selves have changed dramatically
without HDTV. These changes in image quality and relyability were enough
that everyone went out to get a new set.
I wounder if the internet will wind up becoming part international cable
>Virtually all major feilds from industrial architecture, computers,
>industrial manufacture, chemistry, aviation, farming, have all seen dramatic
>improvements. Theses improvements don't always do something obvious, but
>they are there.
>> But are these advancements accelerations or just steady growth?
Acceleration. Most industries talk about the double time of the knowledge
base of their field. Thats an exponential growth curve.
>> Rethinking it, I come to the conclusion that as soon as AI
>> has an IQ of 80 it will only take a few years to reach 180.
Less than that. Computer systems have maintained a 100 fold improvement in
performance per decade for over half a century. Hard to tell how A.I. would
fit into that. We might make a breakthrough (like in my book) and have
everything fall into place in months, or we might stumble along for decades.
>As for us and super intelegent AI's. Eiather we'll find something to do
>together (or co-evolve), or they will move on and ignore us. (We can hardly
>expect them to take care of us forever.)
>> Maybe we should make them just smart enough to do
>> the dirty jobs. And use only a few with IQ 1000 to think.
;) You can't hide forever. Best to come out a deal with things as theyt
happen, not try to lock yourself into a safe past.
>The biggest computer I know of personally is a 4-5 tera byte (E12 byte
>system) being constructed in my old neighborhood in Reston Virgina for the
>phone companies cable TV experement. The Cray corporation is building a 9
>teraflop system for the US government DARPA research agency (completion
>scheduled for 1998), and their competitor (thinking machines) is offering a
>teraflop system comercially for $100 million.
>> Yes, I found some info about another CRAY having max 1.2 TFLOPS.
Ok, so we have the electronic brains. Now for the minds!
>So we already are building systems bigger and more powerfull than the human
>brain, we just don't really know how to make them think. True intelegence
>may require custom circutry. But that circutry could be built in a way
>similar to the current circuts. If of course it does need couston circuts,
>which is hotly debated.
> Custom circuis are is less efficient to do highly parallel computing than
> neural-circuits. ---
I was refering to neural net circuts. We alread know how to make them to the
same consentration as standard circuts, but so far they arn't as usfull.