ROBERT T. CLEMEN
12/17/94
ADDRESSES
College of Business Administration Decision Research
University of Oregon 1201 Oak St.
Eugene, OR 97403 Eugene, OR 97401
(503) 346-5108 (503) 485-2400
FAX: (503) 346-3341 FAX: (503) 485-2403
E-mail: bclemen@darkwing.uoregon.edu
EDUCATION
PhD in Business: Indiana University, Bloomington, IN
Major Field: Quantitative Business Analysis
Minor Field: Finance
Methodology Area: Economic Analysis
Degree awarded: August, 1984
MBA: University of Colorado, Colora do Springs, CO
Major Field: Finance
Degree awarded: August, 1981
Awards: Outstanding Finance Graduate, Outstanding M.B.A. Graduate, 1981-1982
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
Major Field: Anthropology
Graduate Study, 1974-1 975
BA: Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA
Major Field: Anthropology
Degree awarded: June, 1973, "With Distinction", Honors program in Anthropology
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
1976-1980. Holubar Mountaineering, Ltd ., Boulder, CO. Retail Sales and Retail Store Management
1981. Research Assistant, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs
1981-1983. Associate Instructor, School of Business, Indiana University
1984-1989. Assistant Professor of Decision S ciences, University of Oregon
1989-1990. Visiting Associate Professor, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
1989-1990. Associate Professor of Decision Sciences, University of Oregon
1990-present. Associate Professor of Decision Sciences and Robert C. Braddock Research Associate, University of Oregon
1993-present. Senior Researcher, Decision Research, Eugene, OR 97401
TEACHING SUMMARY
COURSES DEVELOPED
Applied Decision Analysi s (Undergraduate and MBA). Covers fundamentals of modern decision analysis. Problem structuring, multiple objectives, uncertainty in decision making, results from behavioral decision theory, creativity. Emphasizes application of techniques to real- world problems, including a term project in which students analyze a personal decision.
Bayesian Inference and Decision Theory (PhD). Subjective probability, Bayesian statistics, natural conjugate distributions, expected utility, sequential dec ision problems. Emphasis is on tools for constructing formal models of decision making to be used as a normative basis in research.
Advanced Topics in Decision Analysis (PhD). Current topics in decision analysis and decision theory. Covers a wide variety of topics such as generalized utility, numerical methods in decision analysis, decision problem structuring, issues in probabilistic risk analysis, aggregation of expert information.
Decision Analysis for Negotiations (MBA). A deci sion-analysis approach to negotiations. Emphasizes understanding values and objectives of parties in multiple-stakeholder negotiations and the use of values as a basis for creating Pareto-superior agreements. Uses cases and role-play simulations to prov ide students with hands-on negotiation experience. Issues in international negotiations and the use of information from experts in multiple-stakeholder decision making.
Forecasting for Management and Decision Making (MBA). Survey of forecastin g methods. Covers use of regression approaches, simple extrapolation techniques (including a brief exposure to ARIMA models), judgmental forecasting, combining forecasts, scenarios, and the use of forecasts in decision-making situations.
Statisti cs for Research (PhD). Introductory course on statistical fundamentals for PhD students. Emphasizes selection of appropriate statistical procedures and interpretation of results for research purposes.
Other courses taught: Basic Statistics (Undergraduate and MBA)
TEACHING-RELATED AWARDS
Outstanding Teacher Award, MBA Program, U. of Oregon, 1987.
Award for Best Decision Analysis Publication in 1991. Awarded by the Operations Research Society of America, Dec ision Analysis Special Interest Group, for Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Boston, MA: PWS-Kent, 1991.
TEACHING-RELATED GRANT
Grant for $7500 from National Institute of Dispute Resolution for development of case materials on international negotiations, 1991-1992, with Richard M. Steers.
TEXTBOOK AND CASES PUBLISHED
Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, (1991) Boston, MA: PWS-Kent Publishing Co.
Instructor's Manual for Making Hard Decisions, (1991) Boston, MA: PWS-Kent Publishing Co.
"Fusion Systems and Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: An International Negotiation," with Richard M. Steers. Forthcoming from the National Institute for Dispute Resolution.
"Beijing Jeep: An International Negotiation," with Richard M. Steers. Forthcoming from the National Institute for Dispute Resolution.
"Consumer Products Corporation -- South Africa: A Role- Playing Exercise," with Richard M. Steers. Forthcoming from the National Institute for Dispute Resolution.
"AmKor Technologies: An International Management Dispute," with Richard M. Steers. Forthcoming from the National Institute for Dispute Reso lution.
OTHER TEACHING-RELATED PUBLICATIONS
"Decision Making with the Macintosh," Wheels for the Mind, 5(1), (1989), 48-52.
"Class seeks decision-based solutions to homelessness," Eugene Register-Guard, April 22, 1993.
PHD STUDENT TRAINING
Dissertations supervised
Completed since 1985: 4
Currently in progress: 2
Dissertation committee member
Within U of O College of Business: 8
Outside U of O College of Busin ess: 3
RESEARCH SUMMARY
FELLOWSHIPS & GRANTS
Summer Research Grants (competitive), School of Business, Indiana University, 1982, 1983.
John Edwards Fellowship, Indiana Universi ty, 1984-1985.
Grant for $268,000 from the National Science Foundation for research on "Information Aggregation: Models and Issues," 1986-1989, with R.L. Winkler.
Development grant from the University of Oregon for research on group decision making, 1988, with J. Orbell and R. Mauro.
Grant for $6,540 from the National Science Foundation for doctoral dissertation research by William J. Burns on the structural modeling of risk perception, 1989, with W.J. Burns.
Grant for $133,693 from the Nation al Science Foundation for research on "Flexible Modeling and Analysis for Information Aggregation," 1991-1994. In collaboration with R.L. Winkler.
Grant for $287,000 from the National Science Foundation for research on "Decision-Making Curriculum Mate rials for Secondary Education," 1992-1994, with Robin Gregory and Don MacGregor.
Grant for $47,000 from the National Science Foundation for research on "Dependence Assessment for Decision and Risk Analysis," 1994-1995. In collaboration with R.L. Winkl er.
RESEARCH-RELATED AWARDS
Award for Best Decision Analysis Publication in 1990. Awarded by the Operations Research Society of America, Decision Analysis Special Interest Group, for "Unanimity and Compromise among Probability For ecasters," with R. L. Winkler, Management Science, 36, (1990) 767-779.
Award for Best Forecasting Publication in International Journal of
Forecasting, 1985-1991. Awarded by the International Institute of
Forecasting for "Combining Forecasts: A Review
and Annotated Bibliography,"
International Journal of Forecasting, 5, (1989) 559-583.
1. "Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources," with R. L. Winkler,< i> Operations Research, 33 (1985) 427-442.
2. "Extraneous Expert Information," Journal of Forecasting, 4 (1985) 329-348.
3. "Combining Economic Forecasts," with R. L. Winkler, Journal of Business and Economic St atistics, 4 (1986) 39-46.
4. "Calibration and the Aggregation of Probabilities," Management Science , 32 (1986) 312-314.
5. "Objective and Subjective Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Statistical Analysis of Some Interre lationships," with A. H. Murphy, Weather and Forecasting, 1 (1986) 56-65.
6. "Objective and Subjective Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Methods for Improving Forecast Quality," with A. H. Murphy, Weather and Forecasting, 1 (1986) 213-218.
7. "Linear Constraints and the Efficiency of Combined Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 5 (1986) 31-38.
8. "Combining Overlapping Information," Management Science, 33 (1987) 373-380.
9. "Calibrating a nd Combining Precipitation Probability Forecasts," with R. L. Winkler, in Probability and Bayesian Statistics, R. Viertl, (ed.), New York: Plenum, (1987) 97-110.
10. "Statistical Analysis of Interrelationships Between Objective and Subjectiv e Temperature Forecasts," with Murphy and Chen, Monthly Weather Review, 116, (1988) 2121-2131.
11. "Collinearity and the Use of Latent Root Regression for Combining GNP Forecasts," with J. Guerard, Journal of Forecasting, 8 (1989) 231-238.
12. "Econometric GNP Forecasts: Incremental Information Relative to Naive Extrapolation," with J. Guerard, International Journal of Forecasting, 5, (1989) 417-4 26.
13. "Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography," (with discussion) International Journal of Forecasting, 5, (1989) 559-583.
14. "The Expected Value of Frequency Calibration," with A. H. Murphy, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46, ( 1990) 102-117.
15. "Unanimity and Compromise among Probability Forecasters," with R. L. Winkler, Management Science, 36, (1990) 767-779.
16. "Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts," with R. L. Winkler, Operations Research, 40, (1992) 609-614.
17. "The Effect of Nonstationarity on Combined Forecasts," with C. Miller and R. L. Winkler, International Journal of Forecasting, 7 (1992) 515-529.
18. "Combining Forecasts: An Overview," Preprints of the T welfth Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences. Boston: American Meteorological Society, 1992, J43-J44. Also in Preprints of the Fifth International Meeting on Statistical Climatology. Toronto, 1992, J43-J44.
< p> 19. "Choosing versus Combining: Implications for Forecast Evaluation," with A. H. Murphy and R. L. Winkler, Preprints of the Twelfth Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences. Boston: American Meteorological Society, 1992, J50-J57. Also in Preprints of the Fifth International Meeting on Statistical Climatology. Toronto, 1992, J50-J57.
20. "Aggregating Point Estimates: A Flexible Modeling Approach," with R. L. Winkler, Management Science, 39, (19 93), 501-515.
21. "Comment on `A Randomization Rule for Selecting Forecasts'," Operations Research, 41, (1993), 801-802.
22. "Covariance Structure Models and Influence Diagrams," with W. J. Burns, Management Science, 39, (1993) , 816-834.
23. "Preparing Adult Students to be Better Decision Makers," with R. Gregory, forthcoming in I. Gall, Ed., Guide For Adult Numeracy Education, Philadelphia, PA: National Center for Adult Literacy.
24. "Aggregating Forecasts : An Empirical Evaluation of Some Bayesian Methods," with S. K. Jones and R. L. Winkler, forthcoming in D. Berry, K. Chaloner, & J. Geweke (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Arnold Zellner.
25. "Beyond Expected Utility: Rethinking Behavioral Decision Research," with D. Frisch, Psychological Bulletin, 116, 1994, 46-54.
26. "Screening Candidate Forecasts: Contrasts Between Choosing and Combining," with A. Murphy and R. Winkler, forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting.
27. "The Use of Probability Elicitation for High-Level Nuclear Waste Regulation," with A. DeWispelare and L. Herren, forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting.
28. "Copula Models for Aggregating Expert Opinions," with M.
Jouini,
forthcoming in Operations Research.
WORKING PAPERS AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
"Improving Students' Decision-Making Skills," with R. Gregory, under review.
"Beyond Critical Thinking: A Framework for Developing the Decision-Making Skills of Secondary School Students," with R. Gregory, draft.
Creative Decisions: A Handbook for Active Decision Makers, with R. Gregory, draft.
"Combining Subjective Probability Distributions: An Overview," draft.
"Cooperative Learning and Decision Making, " with H. Hampton, draft.
"Aggregating Revenue Forecasts: An Experimental Evaluation of Decision-Analysis Models," with R. W inkler, in progress.
OTHER RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS
"Prehistoric Social Organization on Black Mesa," in G. Gumerman and R. Euler, eds., Papers on the Archaeology of Black Mesa, Arizona, Carbondale, IL: SIU Press (1976) 113-136.
"Informati on Production in a Fully Revealing Rational Expectations Economy," with R.H. Jennings, Discussion Paper #322, Graduate School of Business, Indiana University. June, 1986.
"Expert Elicitation of Future Climate in the Yucca Mountain Vicinity: Iterative Performance Assessment Phase 2.5," with A. DeWispelare, L. Herren, & M. Miklas. San Antonio, TX: Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, 1993, Report CNWRA 93-016.
"Combining Forecasts: Progress Since 1989," The Forum, Newsletter of the International Association of Business Forecasting and the International Institute of Forecasters, 6(3), (Fall 1993), 11.
"Background Report on the Use and Elicitation of Expert Judgment," with A. DeWispelare, L. Herren, & E. Bonano. San Antonio, TX: Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, 1993, Report CNWRA 94-019.
SERVICE SUMMARY
PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND ACTIVITIES
Member, The Institute of Management Science
Member, Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Member, Decision Analysis Special Interest Group (Operations Research Society of America)
Member, International Institute of Forecasters
Member, International Society for Bay esian Analysis
Council Member, Decision Analysis Special Interest Group (Operations Research Society of America), 1986-1989, 1994-present.
Judge, ORSA Decision Analysis Special Interest Group Student Paper Competition, 1988.
Chair, ORSA Decision Analysis Special Interest Group Student Paper Competition, 1989.
Panel Member, ORSA Decision Analysis Special Interest Group Best 1988 Publication Award, (Award given in 1990).
Panel Member, ORSA Decision Analysis Special Interest Group Best 1989 Pu blication Award, (Award given in 1991).
Associate Editor, Management Science, 1987-1991.
Associate Editor, International Journal of Forecasting, 1992-present.
Departmental Editor (Decision Analysis), Management Science, 1992- present.
Reviewer of grant proposals for National Science Foundation.
Occasional reviewer for Annals of Statistics, Canadian Journal of Statistics, Decision Sciences, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, & Cybernetics, Internatio nal Journal of Forecasting, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Operations Management, Management Science, Operations Research, Operations Research Letters
UNIVERSITY SERVICE (University of Oregon)
Faculty Search Committees
College of Business
Decision Sciences 1985-86, 86-87, 87-88 (Chair)
Accounting 1986-87
Institute of Cognitive and Decision Sciences 1987- 88, 88-89, 90-91, 91-92
Curriculum Committees and Task Forces, College of Business
PhD Task Force 1985-86
Undergraduate Semester Conversion 1987-88
CBA Task Force (Strategic Planning) 1990-91
Miscellaneous Committees
Colle ge of Business
Computer Committee 1985-86
Teaching Effectiveness Committee 1986-87
Research Advisory Committee 1993-94
Cognitive and Decision Sciences Institute
Executive Committee 1992-92
University
Campus Planning Co mmittee 1985-86, 86-87
Parking Structure Feasibility Group 1987-88
Apple Computer Support Council 1987-88
Library Committee 1990-91
CONSULTING
1987. OreAqua of Springfield, OR. Project focused on statistical a nalysis to determine the impact of OreAqua's salmon-ranching operations on native salmon populations.
1991. Minerals Management Service, Anchorage, AK. Provided a 3-day workshop on negotiation basics as part of a larger project to improve decisio n-making procedures in the agency.
1992-present. Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX. Project involved the development and execution of probabilistic risk assessment regarding future climatological change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Su bsequent work on development of procedures for eliciting, using, and combining judgments from experts.
1993-present. University of Utah, Economics Department. Consultant on study of avalanche forecasting in Little Cottonwood Canyon (Alta and Snowb ird ski areas). Provided advice on the use and modeling of expert avalanche forecasts for the purpose of generating probabilistic avalanche forecasts and decisions to close the highway for avalanche control activity.
1994. Eugene Water and Electr ic Board. Provided 2-day workshop on fundamentals of decision analysis.
SERVICE-RELATED PUBLICATION
"Nature of university professor's job is poorly understood," Eugene
Register-Guard, December 30, 1988.