Independent Investigations and Presentations

You can use Demography to pose your own questions, design and perform modeling experiments to test hypotheses that emerge from those questions, and prepare presentations summarizing your work.

We have three suggestions for possible investigations listed below. You may choose one of these if you wish, but we also encourage you to consider other questions that you may have, perhaps as a result of what you have done so far in this activity, or as a result of your issues research, or from other work in this class.
.

Some Possible Topics



1. Study the implications of population momentum for a region with a rapidly growing population. That is, assume a new policy is implemented that reduces the Total Fertility Rate to replacement levels (about 2.0, but it will depend on the mortality function). Starting with an initial age distribution that reflects the current situation, manipulate the fertility curve to model the new policy. Examine how the age structure and population size change with time.

2. Study the impact of a hypothetical (or real) epidemic on population age structure and population growth for a particular region of the world. You will have to make assumptions about the affects of the epidemic on age-specific mortality rates (and fertility rates). You might start by letting your population reach a stable age distribution and then change mortality and fertility rates to reflect the spread of the epidemic.

3. Develop a conservation plan for an endangered species such as the spotted owl or the Arabian Oryx. This could involve searching for information on age -specific fertility and mortality and current age distribution (or in some cases, making reasonable assumptions about these values), and envisioning how different actions that could be taken will influence fertility and mortality of different age groups. The Arabian oryx activity illustrates how this might work.

4. Model the demographics of a primitive society or culture (e.g. a hunter-gatherer society). How might age structure and population size be influenced by the introduction of modern technology and modern medicine?

Some Suggestions on How to Proceed

Think small. This is not meant to be a large-scale project. You will probably spend more time thinking about what question you want to investigate and how to design your experiments than you will doing them.

Know when to seek help. Your instructors can guide you in developing questions and hypotheses, and in designing your experiments. If you are feeling lost, donít get frustrated -- get help!

Document your assumptions. A model is only as good as the assumptions on which it is based. In this case, you will probably be making assumptions about how a given policy change, new disease, or whatever, will influence birth and death rates. To persuade others of the validity of your models, you will need to be able to defend your assumptions!

Writing Up Your Work

What question are you investigating?






What is/are your hypothesis/es ?




















What experiment(s) can you do using the Demography program to test your hypotheses?
Make sure that you describe your predictions and your assumptions. Also make sure you clearly explain how your experiment addresses your question.
Describe your results. Use tables or graphs if relevant.

















What can you conclude from your results? Does your evidence support or refute your hypothesis? Does it lead you to propose other alternatives?

















Describe the significance of your findings for human demography or for conservation biology.










.