INTERNATIONAL REGULATION OF
CFCS AND OTHER OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES:
CASE STUDY
Copyright: Ronald B. Mitchell
University of Oregon
28 June 1995
ASSIGNMENT
The attached timeline of major events related to the negotiation of
the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete
the Ozone Layer does not have any dates across the top. Instead it has
five points in time denoted by the letters A, B, C, D, and E. Please
prepare for class by preparing answers to each of the following questions.
The goal of this exercise is NOT to figure out what dates correspond to
A-E. Rather, the goal is to have you PREDICT when negotiations would be
successful. Even if you know when the Vienna Convention and Montreal
Protocol were actually signed, if you didn't know that, when would theory
have led you to PREDICT signature. In short, the goal is to use theories
of the relationship between the independent variables of scientific
knowledge, state power, NGO power, industry power, and the media, and the
dependent variable of negotiation success.
At which of these five points would theory lead you to predict that the
nations of the world would have agreed to legally binding rules to
reduce emissions of CFCs?
At which point would theory lead you to predict that the nations of the
world would have agreed to legally binding rules to eliminate
emissions of CFCs?
What factors would theory tell you made these two agreements possible at
the points in time at which they occurred but not before?
What
factors does your analysis suggest must be "in place" before you can
achieve substantive agreement to solve an international environmental
problem? Are those factors "in place" yet in the issue area of global
warming and climate change? What about in the issue area of protecting
wetlands as habitats for migratory bird species?
For pictures of the ozone hole over time, try the following sites:
Ozone
Hole Picture #1
Ozone
Hole Picture #2
Ozone
Hole Picture #3
TIMELINE FOR THE OZONE CASE AND CFC CONTROL
74 77 80 82 84 85 86 87 88 90 92
|--------------|--------------|---------|---------|----|----|----|----|---------|---------|
Science Rowlands <-----wide range of estimates---> Ozone CFCs Data for
& Molina of damage to ozone layer hole linked hole found
article found to hole & discredited
Industry Dupont Alliance Reps as Dupont Dupont Only France
says "rep. for Resp. CFC national supports ban by 1999 has reps on
evidence" Policy formed delegates control Others follow delegation
NGOs NRDC US reps FOEUK Reps as
lawsuit to Japan boycott national
& Eur. delegates
Press Aerosol Ozone Ozone Ozone
articles articles articles articles
U.S. Aerosol Plans Reagan Reject Toronto Congress Congress
ban to go elected control plan Group threatens passes
further unilat. cuts faster
& trade bans phaseout
Nordic/Canada Aerosol Propose Toronto
CFC ban control plan Group
Europe Reject Industry
control plan loses power
Developing countries Press
for $ and
tech xfer
International 1st intl 1st Ozone Vienna Montreal London
meeting WG Convention Protocol Amends
World Plan of
Action
TIMELINE FOR THE OZONE CASE AND CFC CONTROL
A B C D E
Science Rowlands <-----wide range of estimates---> Ozone CFCs Data for
& Molina of damage to ozone layer hole linked hole found
article found to hole & discredited
Industry Dupont Alliance Reps as Dupont Dupont Only France
says "rep. for Resp. CFC national supports ban by 1999 has reps on
evidence" Policy formed delegates control Others follow delegation
NGOs NRDC US reps FOEUK Reps as
lawsuit to Japan boycott national
& Eur. delegates
Press Aerosol Ozone Ozone Ozone
articles articles articles articles
U.S. Aerosol Plans Reagan Reject Toronto Congress Congress
ban to go elected control plan Group threatens passes
further unilat. cuts faster
& trade bans phaseout
Nordic/Canada Aerosol Propose Toronto
CFC ban control plan Group
Europe Reject Industry
control plan loses power
Developing countries Press
for $ and
tech xfer