Psychology 458/558
Judgment and Decision Making
Prof. Bertram Malle
Fall 1995


Readings:
Comments and questions

Every week I am providing comments and questions on the current reading assignments. Their major functions are

Below you can access both the comments on a given reading assignment and the lecture handout that corresponds to that reading.

Please email me if you have comments or questions regarding the readings.

   
Reading assignments Chapters are from the textbook, Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. New York: McGraw-Hill. Articles (indicated by *) are from the course packet.

1 Social partner choice (Sept 26; lecture handout )

* Buss, D. M., & Schmitt, D. P. (1993). Sexual Strategies Theory: An evolutionary perspective on human mating. Psychological Review, 100, 204-232.

2 Choices and consequences (Oct 3; lecture handout )

ch 2: Cognitive dissonance

* Shafir, E., Simonson, I., & Tversky, A. (1993). Reason-based choice. Special Issue: Reasoning and decision making. Cognition, 49, 11-36.

3 Expected utility theory (Oct 5; lecture handout )

* Malle, B. F. (1995). An introduction to judgment and decision making from a folk-theoretical perspective. Unpublished Manuscript, University of Oregon.

ch 7: Expected utility theory

ch 8: Paradoxes in rationality

4 Normative and descriptive models of decision making (Oct 10; lecture handout )

ch 9: Descriptive models of decision making

* Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39, 341-350.

* Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5, 193-206.

5 Framing and context (Oct 12; lecture handout )

ch 4: Context dependence

ch 5: Plasticity

ch 6: The effects of question wording and framing

6 Decisions in a social setting (Oct 17; lecture handout )

ch 17: Social influences

ch 18: Group judgments and decisions

MIDTERM EXAM (Oct 19)

7 Adopting, maintaining, and giving up beliefs (Oct 24; lecture handout )

ch 1: Selective perception

ch 20: Self-fulfilling prophecies

* Gilbert, D. T. (1991).How mental systems believe. American Psychologist, 46, 107-119.

* Dawes, R. M. (1988).Giving up (ch. 11), in R. M. Dawes, Rational choice in an uncertain world (pp. 230-253). Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.

8 Conditional probability, Bayes' theorem (Oct 26; lecture handout )

ch 12: Probability and risk

9 Signal detection theory (Oct 31; lecture handout )

* McNicol, D. (1972). What are statistical decisions? In D. McNicol, A primer of signal detection theory (ch. 1). London: Allen & Unwin.

10 Perception of chance and risk (Nov 2; lecture handout )

ch 14: The perception of randomness

* Tversky, A., & Gilovich, T. (1989). The cold facts about the "hot hand" in basketball. Chance, 2, 16-21.

* Slovic, P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236, 280-285.

11 Heuristics and biases (Nov 7; lecture handout )

ch 10: The representativeness heuristic

ch 11: The availability heuristic

ch 13: Anchoring and adjustment

* Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.

12 Whose biases? (Nov 9; lecture handout )

* Schwarz, N. (1994). Judgment in a social context: Biases, shortcomings, and the logic of con-versation. In M. P. Zanna (ed.), Advances in experminetal social psychology, 26, 123-162.

* Funder, D. C. (1987). Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 75-90.

13 Prediction (Nov 14; lecture handout )

ch 10: The representativeness heuristic [review]

ch 19: Overconfidence

lecture handout )

ch 15: Correlation, causation, and control

* Kahneman, D., & Miller, D. T. (1986). Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. Psychological Review, 93, 136-153.

* Hilton, D. J. (1990). Conversational processes and causal explanation. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 65-81.

15 Self-deception and self-regulation(Nov 21; lecture handout )

* Schelling, T. C. (1984). The mind as a consuming organ. In T. C. Schelling, Choice and consequence (pp. 328-346). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

* Quattrone, G. A., & Tversky, A. (1984). Causal versus diagnostic contingencies: On self-deception and on the voter's illusion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 237-248.

16 Things to avoid and how to do better(Nov 28; lecture handout )

ch 3: Memory and hindsight biases

ch 21: Behavioral traps

Afterword: Taking a step back

FINAL EXAM (Wednesday, Dec 6, 3:15 p.m.)